A Soviet space probe that has been missing for 50 years is about to make its grand return to Earth. But where and when exactly? No one knows exactly. What is certain is that Kosmos 482, launched in 1972 to explore Venus, may have some surprises in store for us in the coming days.
Half a century of wandering around Earth.
Remember, this is 1972. The space race is in full swing between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union launched the Kosmos 482 mission, with the ambitious goal of sending a descent module to the surface of Venus. But nothing went according to plan. A malfunction of the rocket’s final stage doomed the probe to Earth orbit.
From that day, Kosmos 482 orbited our planet tirelessly, like a ghost in space. But now, after 50 years of wandering, the 500-kilogram descent module is finally preparing for re-entry into the atmosphere. And this is where things get complicated.
An unpredictable reentry into the atmosphere
Predicting exactly where and when Kosmos 482 will fall is a challenge. As Marco Langbroek, a Dutch satellite tracking specialist, explains, “with only a few days to impact, no one can say precisely where and when the probe will fall.”
Several factors complicate the calculations. Current solar activity, for example, is expanding our atmosphere and accelerating the descent of objects in orbit. Not to mention uncertainties about the state of the probe itself after half a century in space. Has it been damaged? Has it fragmented? All these questions remain unanswered.
A limited but real risk
The chances of Kosmos 482 striking an inhabited area are slim. Because most of Earth is covered by oceans and uninhabited regions, there is a high probability that the debris will end up in the sea or a desert.
However, as Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard Center for Astrophysics, points out, “it’s still something that weighs half a ton and falls from the sky.” The risks, though low, are not zero. Especially since the descent module, designed to withstand the Venusian inferno, could survive atmospheric reentry.
Space debris, a challenge for the future
Beyond the Kosmos 482 case, this uncontrolled re-entry highlights the growing problem of space debris. Since the early days of space conquest, thousands of satellites have been sent into orbit. Many of them, once their mission is over, remain up there as celestial wrecks.
Today it is estimated that more than 3,000 inactive satellites orbit the Earth. A figure that is steadily increasing as space traffic intensifies. In the face of this orbital disarray, the issue of debris management is becoming crucial.
Cleaning up the skies
To limit the risk of collisions and uncontrolled fallout, space agencies are working on solutions. The goal? Deorbiting end-of-life satellites in a controlled manner, sending them back into the atmosphere to burn or parking them in a “graveyard orbit.”
These initiatives still face technical and financial challenges. But given the urgency of the situation, there is no doubt that space cleanup will become a major issue in the coming years. In the meantime, let us roll our eyes and cross our fingers that Kosmos 482 completes its odyssey in style.